一家地产中介机构关闭了数百家门店，另一家地产中介机构的所有者潜逃；地产开发商取消了融资计划，债务利差大幅扩大；房价大幅下挫——这些听上去像是最近美国房地产市场中发生的事情。
然而，这些事发生在过去3个月的中国，中国一些城市的房地产市场已显示出真正承压的迹象。
中国许多大型上市地产开发商的股价已从去年的高位跌逾50%，原因是投资者担心一些开发商可能被迫宣布破产。
在经历数年的快速投资后，中国房地产开发商遭遇了两方面的压力：政府努力放慢经济增长速度以及全球信贷紧缩。当局已采取不同寻常的强有力措施来限制信贷增长，并承诺推出严厉的新政，以减少开发商手中持有的未开发土地数量。
一些拟议中的股票上市计划不得不暂时搁置，但最令人担忧的信号来自于债券市场。法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)的数据显示，自去年10月以来，雅居乐地产(China Agile Property)和绿城中国(Greentown China)两家公司的信用违约互换（CDS，允许投资者为防范违约风险而进行保险）利差已扩大两倍多，至1000个基点以上，这显示出投资者高度的不确定性。
一定程度上受上述措施的影响，自去年11月份以来，中国南部两大城市——深圳和广州——的房地产交易额大幅下挫，房价也出现跳水。
地产中介机构已感受到了痛苦。总部位于深圳的创辉关闭了旗下1800家门店中的半数以上。创辉曾是中国规模最大的地产中介之一。“我们正尽力筹集资金，”该公司总部租售企划部经理张敏表示，“我们已关闭了很多门店，并退回了租房押金。”
去年11月，另一家总部位于深圳的地产中介机构中天置业也关闭了其多数门店，因有报道称，该公司首席执行官已潜逃。分析人士表示，中国南方房地产市场受到的打击最为沉重，这不让人觉得意外。一定程度上由于其毗邻香港，深圳的投机买房数量远远高于除上海之外的其它地区。
另外，中国北方的购房者喜欢用现金支付，而在南方，按揭购房现象则远为普遍，这使得（南方）市场更容易受到贷款限制和经济增长放缓的影响。
瑞银(UBS)驻香港地产业分析师Eric Wong表示：“在南方地区业务比较大的开发商面临更大的风险。”
问题是，这些情况是否会造成一系列贷款违约现象。多数观察人士认为这不太可能。首先，尽管深圳等个别城市出现了不可持续的房价飙升，但经济学家辩称，全国房地产市场相对稳定，实际上，房价也变得更可以承受。
经纪公司里昂证券(CLSA)驻上海的安迪•罗斯曼(Andy Rothman)表示，去年，中国70个城市的平均房价上涨近8%，而城市居民实际收入则增长了12%。他表示：“如果房地产市场存在问题的话，它们可能是非常局部性的。”
迅速的城市化进程和日益壮大的中产阶层，将继续维系住宅需求。此外，中国房地产市场的杠杆比率远低于美国，银行向按揭购房者要求的首付比例很高。
瑞银的Eric Wong表示：“即便中国人在房地产市场见顶时购房，他们也能够逆来顺受。”
他补充称：“中国的情况与美国不同。如果房地产市场确实下跌，那也将是长期上行趋势中的一次调整。”
许多面临财务压力的房地产企业拥有其它选择。尽管那些在中国内地上市的企业配股需要得到监管机构的批准，但如果需要，在香港上市的公司则能够迅速以较大的折让安排配售。同时，市场中有许多最近几年筹集到资金的私人股本公司，它们正在物色可供投资的中国项目。
短期信贷问题可能还会推动中国房地产行业更多的收购，该行业目前仍由大量规模相对较小的公司所主宰。
“该行业下一阶段的主题是整合，而非破产，”巴黎银行驻香港信贷分析师Mark Lo表示，“大公司将从那些存在流动性问题的公司手中收购项目，或者与其组建合资公司。”

CHINA'S PROPERTY MARKET PREPARES FOR A SHAKE-UP

A real estate agency closing hundreds of branches while the owner of another absconds; property developers cancelling fundraisings and debt spreads widening dramatically; house prices slumping – these sound like recent tales from the US housing market.
Yet these events have happened in the past three months in China, as some parts of the country's housing market have shown signs of real stress.
Shares in many of China's largest listed property developers have fallen more than 50 per cent from their highs of last year in the face of investor fears that some developers might be forced into bankruptcy.
After a couple of years of rapid investment, Chinese developers have been caught between two forces – government efforts to slow economic growth and the global credit crunch. The authorities have taken unusually strong measures to limit credit growth and have promised to introduce a tough new policy to reduce developers' holdings of unused land.
Planned share listings have had to be shelved, but the most worrying signals have come from the debt market. According to BNP Paribas, both China Agile Property and Greentown China have seen the spreads on credit default swaps (which allow investors to buy insurance against default) more than double since October to more than 1,000 basis points this month, indicating a high level of investor uncertainty.
Partly as a result of these measures, the volume of property transactions has fallen sharply since November and, in the two main cities in southern China, Shenzhen and Guangzhou, prices have also slumped.
Real estate agents are already feeling the pain. Shenzhen-based Chuanghui, which had been one of the largest in the country, has closed more than half of its 1,800 branches. “We are doing our best to get cash,” says Zhang Min, a planning manager at the company's headquarters. “We have closed many outlets and got the rental deposits back.”
In November, another Shenzhen-based agency, Zhongtian, closed most of its branches amid reports that its chief executive had gone into hiding. Analysts say it is no surprise that markets in southern China have been hardest hit. Partly as a result of its proximity to Hong Kong, the region has seen much more speculative buying than anywhere bar Shanghai.
Moreover, while northern Chinese house buyers like to pay in cash, mortgages are much more common in the south, which makes the market more vulnerable to credit restrictions and slowing growth.
“Developers with a bigger presence in the south are much more at risk,” says Eric Wong, a property analyst at UBS in Hong Kong.
The question is whether all these developments will add up to a series of defaults. Most observers think that unlikely. For a start, although individual cities such as Shenzhen have seen unsustainable price surges, economists argue that the national housing market is relatively stable and that prices have actually become more affordable.
According to Andy Rothman at brokerage CLSA in Shanghai, the average price of houses in 70 cities rose nearly 8 per cent last year, while real urban incomes accelerated by 12 per cent. “If there are problems in the property market, then they are likely to be very local ones,” he says.
Rapid urbanisation and a growing middle class will continue to underpin housing demand. Moreover, the market is much less leveraged than the US, with banks asking for substantial initial down-payments from mortgage customers.
“People in China will grin and bear it, even if they bought the property at the very peak of the market,” says Mr Wong at UBS.
“The situation is not like the US. If the market does fall, it will be a correction in an upward secular trend,” he adds.
Many of the companies feeling financial pressure have other options. While those listed in mainland China need regulatory approval to sell new shares, the Hong Kong-listed companies can quickly organise placements at steep discounts if they need to. There are also plenty of private equity firms that have raised funds in recent years and are looking for Chinese projects to invest in.
Short-term credit problems could also encourage more takeovers in a sector still dominated by a large number of relatively small companies.
“The next phase for the sector is consolidation, rather than bankruptcy,” says Mark Lo, a credit analyst at BNP Paribas in Hong Kong. “The better names will simply buy projects from, or enter joint ventures with, the companies that have liquidity problems.”